Research Article
Safeer Ali Abbas Ali, Krishnam
Abstract
Innovations in construction ‘time waste’ management are scarce. Construction delays are usually caused by time wastes at activity levels, and scholarly studies primarily don't deal in explaining waste at singular activity levels. Experience based heuristics play the most important role in fixing the duration of activities by managers. But, construction activities are prone to highly improbable and complex process flows, making heuristics unreliable. This happens due because the probabilities of construction uncertainties in one project being similar in forthcoming projects are meagerly low. Thus, the experience gained by the project management personnel over the years, may not be handy at predicting actual durations and costs of the forthcoming project with sufficient accuracy.The only practical solution would be a fixation of cost and time standards for singular construction activities based on the complete history of projects completed and those personnel involved in it. In a nutshell, it would mean globalizing or at least nationalizing heuristic data of delays and wastes in order to facilitate meaningful future predictions.This can be achieved by devising a mechanism of centralization of construction process related data into a single entity at the national/international level - Data Collection System (DCS). As part of this system, synchronization of personnel and construction site data should take place at every instance a new construction process is activated anywhere within the boundary of existing DCS. A collection of inventory data, material data, labor data, stakeholder data, activity delay data, time waste data, etc. should form the core data in this data center. Data obtained from heuristics should then be converted to mathematical distributions that could then be used for predictions in future construction scenarios. This would result in giving better and better results as the process of data entry proceeds. The scope of this study is limited to construction activities from Indian construction sites involving core and shell in buildings. “Cost overrun” in:(1) Beam and slab construction,(2) Column construction and,(3) Block work is mathematically modeled as probability distributions.US naval code NAVFAC P-405 is employed for site independent duration calculation. As part of this study, steps on using NAVFAC – 405 in calculating delays are explored in detail. Beta, Normal, and extreme value distributions were seen to fit cost overruns in these activities. This could then be entered into the DCS.