The proportion of energy consumption structure prediction based on markov chain

Xiaohang Ren, Qian Liu and Yum

Abstract

This paper applies a Markov Chain approach based on quadratic programming model to forecast the trends of energy production and consumption structures. The proposed models are used to simulate China’s energy consumption structure during 2003–2013 and forecast its trends from 2014 to 2020. The proposed models can effectively simulate and forecast the structures of energy production and consumption. Our study demonstrates that the growth rate of energy consumption in China will decrease, and the proportions of natural gas and other renewable energy will keep growing. However, the increasing rate is far from satisfactory; China may fail to achieve the 13th Five-Year Development Plan. Therefore the Chinese government should take more effort to achieve its energy plan.