The Application of The Logistic Model in Analyzing the Risk of Bankruptcy of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): A Case Study

Dao Thi Thanh Binh, Bui Thi Th

Abstract

Using the data of 46 unlisted small and medium enterprises divided into two categories, consisting of 23 bankrupted and non-bankrupted enterprises, the study examined some aspects of bankruptcy risk prediction based on the logistic regression model to identify the most important financial factors related to viability of small businesses. The most notable findings of the study are that businesses in suburban areas are at a higher risk of bankruptcy than firms concentrated in the central districts. The age of enterprises also affects the risk of bankruptcy. For financial indicators, the research results show that economic profitability, firm size, revenue growth and sales to capital investment are important and meaningful factors related to forecasting the exhaustion. Small businesses truly face financial crises in the context of the transition economy, developing along with the young financial market in Vietnam today. Based on the research results, some limitations and further research directions are also proposed.