Estimation and Propagation of Parameter Uncertainty in Lumped Hydrological Models: A Case Study of HSPF Model Applied to Luxapallila Creek Watershed in Southeast USA

Jairo N. Diaz-Ramirez, Billy E

Abstract

Estimation and Propagation of Parameter Uncertainty in Lumped Hydrological Models: A Case Study of HSPF Model Applied to Luxapallila Creek Watershed in Southeast USA Explicit quantification of the uncertainty associated to the predictions of a hydrologic model is a necessary activity to objectively evaluate and report the limitations of the model caused by different sources of error. The current state of the practice of hydrologic modeling indicates that parametric uncertainty is considered as one of the most important sources of uncertainty. Some of the most relevant problems remaining in the practice include the identification of the principal parameters affecting model predictions and quantification of parameter ranges. This study evaluated stochastically one of the most popular deterministic watershed water quality models for decision making in USA.