Developing a model for estimating infant mortality rate of Nigeria

Mojekwu J.N, Ajijola L.A

Abstract

One of the Millennium Development Goals is the reduction of infant mortality by two thirds between 1990 and 2015. Although there has been a substantial reduction in infant and child mortality rates in most developing countries in the recent past, infant mortality remains a major public health issue in developing countries where it is estimated that over 10 million preventable child deaths occur yearly. Progress in infant mortality reduction remains unacceptable in Sub-Saharan Africa. With special reference to Nigeria, the giant of Africa, available statistics suggest that infant mortality levels continue to be high and exhibit wide geographic disparities. This study therefore attempts to estimate infant mortality rate in Nigeria using linear regression model. Crude death rate (CDR) has been selected as the minimum relevant parameter (independent variable) needed for estimating Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) which is the dependent variable because it represents the 'end result' of development. The IMR derived model is checked for adequacy by comparing the estimates of the present study with the estimates from other sources. The diagnostic test show that the regression model derived is quite adequate and reflects the true picture of Nigerian Infant Mortality Rate patterns.