Research Article
Middey A, Kumar N and Rao PS
Abstract
Changes in boundary layer lapse rate with changing aerosol loading in the atmosphere bring about some interesting information concerning climate feedbacks. Aerosols have direct and indirect effects on climate system by various physical mechanisms. Some of them are well understood while some require more reasoning and interpretations. The present study used satellite derived data of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Solar Radiation along with radiosonde upper air sounding data over a coastal station Dabolim, Goa (15.38°N, 73.83°E) of India to investigate their effect on changing the boundary layer (upto 850 hPa) lapse rate over the years. Twelve years (2001- 2012) radiosonde winter season (December, January and February) data have been analyzed to develop a multiple linear regression model to predict boundary layer lapse rate over the site and subsequently a univariate Markov chain prediction model is introduced to anticipate the future scenario.