An Econometric Study of the Impact of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate on Public Debt Using Four Panels of Countries

Saoussen Ouhibi, Sami Hammami

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate the impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on public debt for the period 1990–2017 by using dynamic panel data model estimated by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The main objective of this article is to examine the relationship between inflation, exchange rate, economic growth and public debt. This research structured around two hypotheses, the first assumes that these determinants have a positive and statistically significant effect on public debt and the second assumes these determinants have a negative and statistically significant effect on public debt. In fact, empirical evidence indicates a significant positive impact of inflation on public debt for three panels. Exchange rates have a positive and statistically significant (European countries) and negative and statistically significant (sub-Saharan region) effect on public debt. Finally, interest rate have a positive and statistically significant effect on public debt in two panels.